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ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: DefenseNews

04April2011 8:14pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE:  ISLAMABAD – Pakistan said April 1 it had given the chief of the country's powerful military spy agency an extra year in the job after he had been set to retire.

Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha, who was appointed chief of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) – involved in combating al-Qaida and the Taliban – in 2008, had been due to retire from service last month.

In theory, the ISI works under the control of the prime minister, but in practice its functions are mainly run by Pakistan's pervasive security establishment.

ISI has been at the centre of concerns among western allies that it is either turning a blind eye to militants in Pakistan's troubled tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, or even actively sponsoring the rebels. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Secrecy News

29March2011 3:25amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: The U.S. intelligence community will prepare a National Intelligence Estimate on the implications of the continuing decline in U.S. manufacturing capacity, said Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) citing recent news reports.

“Last month Forbes reported that the continued erosion of the U.S. manufacturing base has gotten so serious that the Director of National Intelligence has begun preparation of a National Intelligence Estimate… to assess the security implications of the decline of American manufacturing,” said Rep. Schakowsky, a member of the House Intelligence Committee. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Secrecy News

24March2011 6:00amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: The Director of National Intelligence is calling for the “integrated defense” of intelligence community (IC) information and systems to protect against unauthorized disclosures of intelligence sources and methods.

Office of the Director of National IntelligenceWhile every intelligence agency already has its own security procedures, a new Intelligence Community Directive (pdf) issued by the DNI would require a more coordinated and consistent approach, involving “unified courses of action to defend the IC information environment.”

“The IC information environment is an interconnected shared risk environment where the risk accepted by one IC element is effectively accepted by all,” the new Directive said.  Therefore, “integrated defense of the IC information environment is essential to maintaining the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of all information held by each IC element.” (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

The following is an exerpt from a blog post by Kristan J. Wheaton, Associate Professor of intelligence studies at Mercyhurst College, is a summarized example of the analysis of "correlation and causation".

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Sources And Methods

21March2011 1:23pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: If you have ever heard the classic scientific warning that "correlation does not imply causation" and did not understand what that saying meant, this is a perfect example.  Just because two things are happening at the same time does not necessarily mean that one caused the other.

Correlation and causationAnalysts typically spring this trap when the connection is not as obviously flawed as it is in this case.  The human mind is extremely good at seeing patterns — even when they are not there.

Does correlation never indicate causation?  No, that is clearly false as well.   In fact, correlation is a necessary condition for causation — necessary but not sufficient.  

The best way to expose this trap appears to be to imagine the counterfactual.  In the case above, imagine what it would be like if all those southerners actually had passports.  Would that, in turn, reduce any of the known risk factors for diabetes?  Unlikely.  It would appear to be merely a coincidence.

Should the analyst just discard the evidence at this point?  The answer is "No" once again. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Information Week

21March2011 4:00amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: The Navy is developing a new software-based intelligence system that fuses information from a variety of sources to more quickly and efficiently identify possible U.S. Navy STAFFsecurity threats, according to the company building the system.

The military arm has awarded a Phase 1 small business innovative research contract to Florida-based Modus Operandi to build an intelligence-analysis and counterintelligence system called the Semantic Targeting and All-source Fusion Framework, or STAFF.

The company is not disclosing the amount of the award, according to a Modus Operandi spokesperson.

The system combines a range of ways to gather intelligence information — including human intelligence, signals intelligence, full-motion video, and moving-target indicator data, the last of which involves using radar to find a moving target among fixed objects, according to the company. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: DEBKAfile

10March2011 8:28amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: During the four days between Thursday March 4 and Monday March 7, the Obama administration switched its Iran policy. As rocketing oil prices triggered by the Arab Revolt wiped out the damage caused the Iranian economy by sanctions, Washington confirmed the worst Saudi and Israeli suspicions that America had no intention of acting to stop the Islamic Republic attaining nuclear weapons, although it held Israel back from doing so when it was more feasible.

This discovery has dealt America's allies in Riyadh and Jerusalem their second letdown in three Obama administration accepts the prospect of nuclear Iranmonths, on the heels of White House encouragement of the uprisings againsta select number of Arab rulers.

The White House laid the ground for its change of heart on Iran with public statements that drew little attention from international media during the Libyan crisis.

The Director of National Intelligence James Clapper presented the Senate Armed Services Committee this week with a "revised" version of the controversial 2007 National Intelligence Estimate which claimed orignally against all the evidence that Iran had halted work on nuclear arms in 2003.

It is now confirmed that the misinformation contained in the original NIE was the pretext for holding back – not only an Israeli attack on Iran but also direct American action for keeping nuclear arms out of Iran's hands. By revising that erroneous estimate, the Obama administration shows it is willing to catch up and come to terms with the reality of Iran's wide-open option to develop nuclear weapons. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Secrecy News

01March2011 8:00amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Millions of feet of film of historical imagery from intelligence satellites may be declassified this year, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) said.

NGI“The NGA is anticipating the potential declassification of significant amounts of film-based imagery… in 2011,” according to an NGA announcement that solicited contractor interest in converting the declassified film into digital format.  It was published in Federal Business Opportunities on February 14, 2011.  A copy is posted here (pdf).

For planning purposes, the NGA told potential contractors to assume the need to digitize “approximately 4 million linear feet of film up to approximately 7 inches in width.”  The imagery is “stored on 500 foot spools, with many frames up to several feet in length.”  A nominal start date of October 1, 2011 was specified for the digitization project.

The NGA announcement also suggested that the winning contractor would “retain rights to distribute declassified imagery and recoup investment, for a specified period of time (negotiable).”  This would be problematic if it implied that the contractor had exclusive access to the declassified film and could prevent others from digitizing selected portions of it. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: IntelNews

01March2011 7:00amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Several Pakistani publications report that the United States has suspended some of its intelligence operations in Pakistan and is pulling several of its operatives out of the country.

US PassportsThe Islamabad-based Express-Tribune, which is partnered with The International Herald Tribune (the global edition of The New York Times), says that the US move is designed to pre-empt an ongoing investigation by Pakistani authorities into the whereabouts and activities of hundreds of US diplomats in several of the country’s regions.

According to the paper, Pakistan’s foreign ministry is in the process of conducting its first detailed investigation into the US diplomatic community in Pakistan in almost three years.

The ministry has told the Express Tribune that it has detected 851 Americans operating in Pakistan with diplomatic immunity, of whom nearly 300 “are not working in a diplomatic capacity”. The paper also cites sources inside Pakistan’s ministry of the interior, which claim that as many as 414 American diplomats operating in Pakistan are members of the US intelligence community.

Over 40 US intelligence operatives have allegedly left the country or have completely suspended their activities in recent weeks. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Israel National News

25February2011 2:05pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Western intelligence agencies have detected another nuclear plant in Syria – in a Damascus suburb.

Satellite photos of suspected nuclear facility in SyriaFollowing Israel’s bombing of a nuclear production plant in Syria over three years ago, another nuclear complex, albeit smaller, has now apparently been found, following close analysis of satellite photos.

A German newspaper, the Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), reports that it has received the photos, but will not publish them because inferences can be made as to when they were taken, and thus to who leaked them.  

 In addition, Washington's Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) published photos on Wednesday of one of three more sites that are believed to be connected to the Al-Kibar facility. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Associated Press

24February2011 6:00pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: VIENNA  — Iran is expanding its covert global search for the uranium it needs for its nuclear activities and a key focus is Zimbabwe, says a new intelligence report acquired by The Associated Press.

Nuclear IranThe report is in line with international assessments that Iran's domestic supplies cannot sustain its nuclear program that could be turned toward making weapons.

An intelligence report from a member country of the International Atomic Energy Agency – shared with the AP by an official from that nation – says Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi met secretly last month with senior Zimbabwean mining officials "to resume negotiations … for the benefit of Iran's uranium procurement plan."

"This follows work carried out by Iranian engineers to map out uranium deposits in Africa and assess the amount of uranium they contain," said the two-page intelligence summary.

The report – confirmed independently by an official from another IAEA country – was shared as an Iranian delegation led by the head of the Cooperative Ministry Abbas Johari was meeting Thursday with "agriculture and mining interests" in the Zimbabwean capital Harare. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

 

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Army Times

16February2011 12:35pmEST

GCIS CYBER-SECURITY UPDATE: WASHINGTON — More than 100 foreign intelligence agencies have tried to breach U.S. defense computer networks, largely to steal military plans and weapons systems designs, a top Pentagon official said Tuesday.

Foreign agencies test US network securityDeputy Defense Secretary William Lynn said that while foreign governments and rogue states may try to launch more destructive attacks against military networks, most may stick to theft and spying because they are worried about a U.S. counterattack.

The greater threat, he said, are terror groups such as al-Qaida, who are more difficult to deter. Terrorists have vowed to unleash cyberattacks, and over time may be able to either develop their own malicious computer threats or buy them on the black market.

Lynn’s remarks, made at a cybersecurity conference in San Francisco and released in Washington, come as the U.S. government is struggling to ramp up its abilities to block cyberintrusions and to lay out policies for launching the high-tech attacks when needed. U.S. government sites are scanned and attacked millions of times a day, and there have been a number of serious breaches in recent years, including into the electric grid and Pentagon weapons contractors.(read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Secrecy News

14February2011 11:34amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) will be “reduced in its size and budget,” DNI James R. Clapper Jr. told the House Intelligence Committee last week (pdf).

DNI James R. Clapper Jr.“We, I think, all understand that we’re going to be in for some belt-tightening. And given, you know, the funding that we have been given over the last 10 years since 9/11, that’s probably appropriate,” DNI Clapper said on February 10.

“Shortly after I became DNI, exactly six months ago today, I began a thorough review of the organization. I examined the intelligence reform law, other statutes and executive orders, and the activities that they direct the DNI to execute,” he said.

“Upon review, I decided to reduce or eliminate functions not required by law or executive order that are not core missions of the DNI. I also identified elements that should transfer out of the ODNI to another agency who would serve as the executive agent on my behalf and carry out these services of [common] concern on behalf of the ODNI. In other words, we don’t need to do everything on the DNI staff itself.”

“Based on this efficiencies review, the Office of the DNI is being reduced in size and budget,” DNI Clapper said.  The details of the reduction remain to be spelled out. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Rediff News

12February2011 12:08pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE:  Pakistan-based Al Qaeda's senior leadership remained committed to acquiring weapons of mass destruction including nuclear weapons, a top Obama administration official said.

In his testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Michael Leiter, director of National Counter-terrorism Centre said, "We assess that Al Qaeda committed to access to nuclear weaponsAl Qaeda's senior leadership in Pakistan remains committed to obtaining all types of weapons of mass destruction."

"But thanks to some outstanding and effective offensive action against Al Qaeda senior leadership in Pakistan, we also assess that their ability to do so is greatly diminished since 9/11," Leiter said in response to a question from Congressman Mike Rogers, chairman of the committee.

"So you would rate their intention as high to try to secure that?" Rogers asked.

"Yes," answered Leiter. "I think the intent remains high, in particular in Pakistan and in Yemen," Leiter said.

Expressing concern over the current situation in Pakistan, Congressman Ben Chandler said, "Pakistan is one of the most dangerous places on the planet." (read full report)

 

 

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's advertisers or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: ISAF Joint Command – Afghanistan

11February2011 7:40pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: KABUL, Afghanistan  – Twelve members of the Afghan Air Force, including the first female student and two civilians, graduated from the basic airman intelligence Female Afghan Air Force graduatecourse at Pohantoon-e-Hawayee, the Afghan Air Force's "Big Air School", Feb. 3.

Attending the graduation was Brig. Gen. Barat, the Kabul Air Wing commander, who shared a few words with the graduates.

“The Afghan military is lucky to have the International Forces here helping to train and equip us,” explained Barat. “That is the best thing for the Afghan armed forces and classes such as this because with each graduating course we become better equipped as a military.”

The class is based on NATO standards, so all material was written and taught to support NATO air operations. Each of the graduates completed 210 hours of classroom instruction covering more than 50 topics.

“Topics range from critical thinking and analysis, mission planning, classified information protection and security, to the creation and delivery of a professional military intelligence brief in support of Afghanistan Air Force flying operations,” said Tech. Sgt. Lee Marsters, Afghan Air Force Intelligence adviser, with the NATO Air Training Command-Afghanistan/438 Air Expeditionary Advisory Group. (read full report)

 

 

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's advertisers or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: HS Today

11February2011 9:51amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Radical changes in methods, strategies and technologies of New policing policies post-9/11policing necessitate the forging of new relationships between police and communities, according to a new study by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ), titled  The Changing Environment for Policing, 1985-2008.
 
“Not only are changes occurring in the environment that may affect the structure of policing but police themselves are in the process of changing the way they work,” the report explains, noting that the factors driving this are the threat of terrorism, intelligence- led policing and DNA analysis.
 
While these developments have helped drive a significant decrease in violent crime over the past two decades, according to the report, each has also transfered initiative in directing operations to specialists who collect and analyze information and away from both general-duties police and the public.
 
 “Ironically,” the report notes, “ these changes could undo the signature contribution of the 1980s — community policing. “
 
A focus on counterterrorism, for example, centralizes decision making, shifting it upward in police organizations and making it less transparent.
 
“In the aftermath of Sept. 11,”  the report says, “a new emphasis has been placed on the development of covert intelligence gathering, penetration and disruption. In the United States, the development of covert counterterrorism capacity has been unequally distributed, being more pronounced in larger police forces. Where it occurs, important questions arise about legal accountability as well as operational payoff.” (read full report)

 

 

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's advertisers or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: The Washington Times

10February2011 2:15pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: WASHINGTON (AP) — Amid criticism that intelligence services DNI James Clappermissed the signs of Arab revolt in Tunisia and Egypt, the nation’s top intelligence official will tell Congress that the threat from al Qaeda and its affiliates remains his No. 1 priority, U.S. officials said.

In testimony scheduled Thursday before the House Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper will stress that counterterrorism to keep Americans safe is the focus of the intelligence community, according to one of those officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss matters of intelligence.

Mr. Clapper is expected to defend how the intelligence community tracked the revolts that have swept through two major American allies in the Arab world, toppling the leader of Tunisia and threatening the regime in Egypt, the officials said. (read full report)

 

 

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's advertisers or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Calgary Herald

09February2011 8:54pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: OTTAWA – Canada does not need a foreign intelligence service like Canadian Security Intelligence Servicethe CIA, says the head of the watchdog agency that oversees CSIS.

Dr. Arthur T. Porter says current intelligence-gathering by a handful of federal departments and agencies satisfies the government's appetite for made-in-Canada foreign intelligence.

"You have to recognize that (by spying) you are probably breaking somebody's law by just the definition of what you're doing," Porter said in his first interview since becoming chairman of the security intelligence review committee (SIRC) last summer.

"It's also incredibly expensive to set that sort of apparatus up. I'm just not sure that we're ready to go in that direction at this time." (read full report)

 

 

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's advertisers or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

 

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: NBCNewYork.com

01February2011 3:34pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Security officials are warning the leaders of major Wall Street banks Wall Street on terror alertthat al Qaeda terrorists in Yemen may be trying to plan attacks against those financial institutions or their leading executives.

Intelligence officials stress the threats are general in nature and there is "no indication of a targeted assassination plot" against any Wall Street executive. But NBCNewYork.com has learned officials fear the names of some top banking executives have been discussed by terror operatives overseas.

Intelligence analysts added they have a general but growing concern that operatives in Yemen may again try to send package bombs or biological or chemical agents through the mail to Wall Street bankers.

In recent weeks, the FBI' Joint Terrorism Task Force and NYPD officials have been briefing bank executives and their security departments on the nature of the threat information. Much of it gleaned from al Qaeda writings like 'Inspire' magazine that recently warned of attacks targeting financial institutions. (read full report)

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Sources and Methods

27January2011 4:23pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: If there is one thing that virtually every intelligence professional, every intelligence sub-discipline, every intelligence training course uses, it is some version of the Intelligence CycleIntelligence Cycle.

If you don't believe me, do a quick Google image search on the words "intelligence cycle".  While virtually none of the cycles are the same and virtually no intel professional will swear that this is how intel actually gets done, it appears to be one of the few things that everyone — national security, law enforcement and business — uses.

A number of years ago, when I began to question the utility of the cycle (more on that later), I also began to do research on where the cycle came from.  Who invented it?  When? And under what circumstances?  Why did the inventor think that a cycle was the best representation of the intel process? (read full report)