GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Debka Report: Israel and Hamas near a Spring war

 

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: DEBKAfile

02April2011 1:00pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Saturday, after nearly two months of heightened Palestinian terrorist activity and low-key Israeli reprisals, both sides dropped their long pretense of seeking calm.

Ever since the massacre of five members of an Israeli family at Itamar on Feb. 11, Israeli government leaders have tried to sell the line that Hamas was not really seeking to raise the level of violence.

They continued to play down Hamas' motives through a 50-round mortar barrage in a single day (March 19) on Israeli civilian locations abutting the Gaza Strip, several Grad missiles fired at the towns  Ashkelon, Ashdod, Beersheba and Netivot and a bombing attack in Jerusalem on March 23, which killed a tourist and injured 65 after two relatively terror-free years.

In between major attacks, the Palestinians have maintained up until the present a steady trickle of Qassam and mortar fire against Israeli civilians.

While intensifying its attacks, Hamas picked up the convenient Israeli mantra which claimed that the terrorist-rulers of Gaza wanted nothing but a ceasefire which would also embrace all the smaller terrorist organizations taking part on the shooting as well.

The Israeli army statement after the pre-dawn air strike over Gaza Saturday abruptly broke that pose by exposing Hamas's true intentions for the first time. He admitted that the Palestinian radicals had set up a major murder-cum-kidnap campaign for striking terror across the Green Line and favorite Israeli vacationing spots in Sinai, to be launched during the eight-day Passover holiday April 18-28…(read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: 'America’s Navy and the rise of China'

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: The Washington Post

By George Will

24March2011 9:00amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Scholars at the Naval War College here probably nodded in vigorous agreement with a recent lecture delivered at another military institution 130 miles away.

Speaking at West Point to leaders of tomorrow’s Army, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that “any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should ‘have his head examined,’ as General MacArthur so delicately put it.” This underscored Gates’s point that “the most plausible, high-end scenarios for the U.S. military are primarily naval and air engagements — whether in Asia, the Persian Gulf or elsewhere.”

Here at this 127-year-old college, where the American practice of war-gaming began in 1887, the faculty members are professional worriers, especially about Asia, meaning China. Its naval doctrines, procurements and deployments invite inferences about its geopolitical intentions. Faculty members noted that when Libya descended into chaos, China sent a frigate through the Suez Canal to be in position to assist Chinese nationals in distress. This was the first time the People’s Republic had positioned a high-end combatant ship for a possible evacuation. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Qaddafi's air force is up again and ferrying fresh troops to defend Tripoli

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: DEBKAfile

28February2011 6:00amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Hours after the UN Security Council unanimously imposed sanctions on Col. Muammar Qaddafi and his regime, his reactivated air force was flying army and tribal reinforcements from the south and landing them at the military airfields of Tripoli, Misrata and Sirte. DEBKAfile's military sources report.  Sunday night, Feb. 27, men were immediately deployed at the main road intersections leading to the capital.

This move at the current stage of Libya's civil war lessens the military significance of the rebels' reported takeover of towns around Tripoli, including Al Zawiya to the west, from which Qaddafi's forces pulled back to guard the main road to Tripoli.

For now, the rebels face four main difficulties:

1. They lack organized military strength to stand up to Qaddafi's professionally-trained and equipped soldiers. This imbalance can only be offset by a mutiny in the army's ranks or assassination.
2. Instead of digging in and consolidating their control of the eastern part of the country after its capture, the rebels went after Tripoli in order to topple Qaddafi. Sunday night, this goal looked unattainable.
3. They have rejected US and European offers of military assistance in the strongest terms warning that if foreign troops intervened they would redirect their guns from Qaddafi on the interlopers.
4. The rebels are fighting without air cover, while Qaddafi's forces command enough air power and air fields in the south to keep up a steady flow of fresh fighting men in his support.

Early Sunday, Feb. 27, US President Barack Obama called on Libyan ruler Col. Muammar Qaddafi to leave now, having lost the legitimacy to rule since "his only means of staying in power is to use violence against his own people," and the UN Security Council's 15 members unanimously slapped down wide-reaching sanctions on members of his family and regime commanders, calling for an immediate International Criminal Court probe of Qaddafi, his seven sons and daughter and military commanders, on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Middle East oil war spreads. First demos in Saudi Arabia, Iraq refinery blasted

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: DEBKAfile

26February2011 12:04pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Iraq's biggest oil refinery at Baiji, 180 kilometers north of Baghdad, was blown up early Saturday, Feb. 26, by an Al Qaeda cell activated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Al Qods Brigades, DEBKAfile's Middle East sources report. Tehran is using the Middle East turbulence to generate fuel shortages in Iraq and boost oil prices worldwide.

Thursday night, Feb. 24, saw the first signs of unrest in Saudi Arabia with demonstrations by young people demanding reforms of the kingdom's system of government and by Shiites living and working in the kingdom's oil-rich eastern regions. They demonstrated at Awwamiya in Qatif in solidarity with the protests in Libya and Bahrain. They also demanded the release of detainees rounded up by Saudi security authorities among the two million Shiites living and working in the main oil centers of Saudi Arabia to nip potential unrest in the bud.

Friday, in the Red Sea town of Jeddah in the west, a group calling itself "Jeddah Youth for Change staged a demonstration.

The slightest sign of unrest in Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is bound to affect the price of oil. Iran is the biggest beneficiary of soaring prices. Day after day, as Arab capitals are beset by popular turbulence, Tehran is watching the damage caused its economy by international sanctions shrinking. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Foreign Affairs report: How al Qaeda Works

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Foreign Affairs

24February2011 11:00pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Despite nearly a decade of war, al Qaeda is stronger today than when it carried out the 9/11 attacks. Before 2001, its history was checkered with mostly failed attempts to fulfill its most enduring goal: the unification of other militant Islamist groups under its strategic leadership. However, since fleeing Afghanistan to Pakistan's tribal areas in late 2001, al Qaeda has founded a regional branch in the Arabian Peninsula and acquired franchises in Iraq and the Maghreb. Today, it has more members, greater geographic reach, and a level of ideological sophistication and influence it lacked ten years ago.

Still, most accounts of the progress of the war against al Qaeda contend that the organization is on the decline, pointing to its degraded capacity to carry out terrorist operations and depleted senior leadership as evidence that the group is at its weakest since 9/11. But such accounts treat the central al Qaeda organization separately from its subsidiaries and overlook its success in expanding its power and influence through them. These groups should not be ignored. All have attacked Western interests in their regions of operation. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has also long targeted the United States, but its efforts have moved beyond the execution stage only in the last two years, most recently with the foiled plot to bomb cargo planes in October 2010. And although al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has not yet attacked outside its region, al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) was reportedly involved in the June 2007 London and Glasgow bomb plots. (read full report)

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: 'China ready to go to war to safeguard national interests'

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: IntelliBriefs

14February2011 12:10pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE:  BEIJING – Terming US attempts to woo India and other neighbours of China as "unbearable," an article in a Communist party magazine has said that Beijing must send a "clear signal" to these countries that it is ready to go to war to safeguard its national interests.

The article published in the Qiushi Journal, the official publication of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) said China must adhere to a basic strategic principle of not initiating war but being ready to counterattack.

"We must send a clear signal to our neighbouring countries that we don't fear war, and we are prepared at any time to go to war to safeguard our national interests," the article said, suggesting an aggressive strategy to counter emerging US alliances in the region. (read full report)

 

 

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's partners or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS/MSS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Prepare for War: Looking at the worst case scenario – a common Jewish trai

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: Shalom Life

12February2011 7:09pmEST

GCIS/MSS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Iran – Turkey – Egypt
 
Up until 1979, Israel and Iran had a strong bi-lateral relationship and a strategical cooperation. Then came the Islamic Revolution, a movement which surprised both America and Israel and led to the ousting of pro-Israel Shah and replaced him with the anti-Israel Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini. The outcome of the revolution abruptly wiped out years of positive friendship and strong relations between Israel and Iran and has led to the scenario we face today, an arch-foe with nuclear ambitions and a goal of extermination.
 
Turkey, a once secular state and long considered one of Israel’s best friend in the Middle East, has fallen under similar circumstances. The now dominantly Islamic Muslim government has also changed its attitude towards Israel. It has recently declared that Israel is a threat to the Turkish national security and has started to tighten its relationship with Iran, with whom historically they have had strained relations.
 
The Egyptian-Israeli border has been quiet since 1974. In 1979 Israel and Egypt signed a peace treaty to further government and economic cooperation between the two countries. The Mubarak regime was considered a moderate one in terms of its attitude to the west and Israel, where peace terms were kept and respected. Yesterday, Mubarak finally conceded his presidency, after 30 years in power and 18 days of violent protests, leaving the country under the authority of the Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, its military.
 
Despite the recent declaration of the Egyptian military that it will respect all the international agreements that Egypt has signed, it is still unknown whether the future regime will stand behind these agreements, or it will turn hostile towards Israel, as many of its partners have in the past. (read full report)

 

 

"GCIS/MSS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is a cooperative intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service and Machaseh Security Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, MSS or it's advertisers or affiliates.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Obama's Pentagon cuts not what they seem

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: CNN Money

11February2011 8:22amEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: For those of us who believe the U.S. government is spending more on defense than it needs to, President Obama's budget on Monday will bring what sounds like welcome news: The administration is expected to propose a $78 billion reduction in defense spending over the next five years.

Unfortunately, there's a lot more to the story.

First of all, the cuts might prove illusory. The federal government appropriates money one year at a time, and the vast majority of that $78 billion reduction would take place in 2014 and 2015, when there will be a new Secretary of Defense and possibly a new president.

In fact, Obama's expected 2012 request of $553 billion would be 5% higher than what the Defense Department plans to spend this year. In inflation-adjusted dollars, this figure is higher than at any time during the Bush years or during the Cold War. (read full report)

 

 

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's advertisers or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.

GCIS INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Gingrich: "We're losing war on terror"

ISSUED BY: GCIS Communications Command Center

SOURCE: CNN

03February2011 1:23pmEST

GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Washington (CNN) – Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gave a grim assessment on the war on terror last night during a debate with former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, and suggested the situation unfolding in Egypt could pose a threat to the United States.
"Any honest assessment on 9/11 this year, ten years after the attack, I think will have to conclude that we're slowly losing the war," Gingrich said. "We're losing the war because there are madrassahs around the planet teaching hatred. We're losing the war because the network of terrorists is bigger, not smaller."

Gingrich pointed to the unrest in Egypt as posing a potential new threat to American security.
"There's a real possibility in a few weeks, if we're unfortunate, that Egypt will join Iran, and join Lebanon, and join Gaza, and join the things that are happening that are extraordinarily dangerous to us," Gingrich said. (read full report)

 

 

 

"GCIS INTELLIGENCE UPDATE" is an intelligence briefing presented by Griffith Colson Intelligence Service, and provided to the public for informative purposes only. All subject matter is credited to it's source of origin, and is not intended to represent original content authored by GCIS, it's advertisers or affiliates. All opinions presented are those of the author, and not necessarily those of GCIS or it's partners.